A few weeks ago I got to chat with Bill Fulton about a number of topics on the podcast but one that continues to stick out to me is how urban growth and change around the country is clashing with any number of current trends from the silver tsunami to work from home. Along with the climate crisis I’m wondering if all of these things will come to a head at some point in a rather spectacular way for better or worse.
Today there’s an item in the Texas Tribune about downtown Dallas losing sports teams and fortune 500 companies to its suburbs and all that comes along with it. Many would see a downturn narrative where I might see it as more of a mixed bag pointing towards a need to think about more fundamental truths about urban growth and cities.
We know that sports teams on net don’t generate the same amount of value that they request from cities. Of course businesses such as hotels and bars/restaurants surrounding arenas are likely to suffer, but the overall economic impact is negligible. So much so that many of these teams are using new stadiums to be the center of real estate deals that use the sports as a kind of loss leader to bring property investment.
We also know from decades of economic development practice that giving tax breaks for one company to build its headquarters in a city is not a winning strategy either. The companies are seeking benefits in their best interests and not the city’s which creates more value for the companies than they give back. In fact, most job growth which creates value for regions comes from internal promotion and hiring among small and medium size businesses.
Yet the Dallas suburbs are growing at a fast pace and generating press which creates a narrative conundrum for a city that data shows lost almost 2,000 residents last year. It’s hard to push back against those headwinds once they begin.
But after talking to Bill this should also ring alarm bells for the State of Texas as well. As he noted, Texas growth from migration is slowing and many of the places that are facing the same growth acceleration as Texas once did are in the South. Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee.
Once the growth spigot is turned off as migration slows and birthrates level out what is left? The value that was created through asset investments along the way. The transportation networks built and the housing allowed that keep future costs low. The care systems and climate adaptation that prepare for an unknown future.
That doesn’t matter much for companies and sports teams because they are never left holding the bag. They’ll chase the quick fix while cities and regions must be really diligent about long term value creation and sustainable returns. So Dallas shouldn’t be worried about what’s leaving, but rather how they improve life for those that stay, and those who want to come.
Sara Hendren said to us in an interview about her book on disability that people in wheelchairs are only disabled by a world full of stairs. How we build and adapt our cities for the future will determine how good life will be down the line.
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